Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
NATO is signaling a significant shift in its security posture as the alliance confronts an increasing wave of Russian cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and drone incursions across Europe. The bloc’s top military commander warned that the traditional model of reacting to Moscow’s hybrid operations is proving insufficient, raising the prospect of more assertive measures that could include pre-emptive action.
Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told the Financial Times that the alliance is re-examining its long-standing reluctance to conduct offensive cyber operations or broader anticipatory measures. The recalibration comes as Europe faces repeated undersea cable sabotage in the Baltic Sea, crippling cyber intrusions, and persistent violations of NATO airspace.
“We are studying everything… On cyber, we are kind of reactive. Being more aggressive or being proactive instead of reactive is something we are thinking about,” Dragone said. He noted that pre-emptive strikes, in certain circumstances, could be interpreted as defensive measures designed to deter future attacks, even if such steps sit far from NATO’s traditional approach.
His remarks immediately drew sharp condemnation from Moscow. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described the idea as “extremely irresponsible,” accusing NATO of steering deliberately toward escalation and attempting to undermine efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine. She warned that those advocating such actions “must be aware of the ensuing risks” for alliance members.
While Western European capitals have generally favored restraint, NATO’s eastern flank home to states most exposed to Russian interference, has long pressed for stronger responses. A Baltic diplomat warned that a purely reactive strategy simply encourages Moscow to “keep trying, keep hurting us,” noting that hybrid warfare is cheap for Russia but costly for its targets.
Legal and jurisdictional constraints remain major obstacles to any more assertive posture. Even successful NATO operations have revealed gaps. In Finland, the crew of a Russian-linked vessel suspected of severing critical undersea data cables walked free after investigators concluded the attack occurred in international waters—beyond the reach of Finnish law. Asked whether that effectively hands Russia a permissive space offshore, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen responded bluntly: “Yes, and that’s a problem.”
NATO officials point to the Baltic Sentry mission, expanded after multiple sabotage attempts, as evidence that the alliance can deter Russia when it shows resolve. Dragone said that since the operation’s expansion, there has been “nothing,” a sign that firm defensive deployments can curb Moscow’s activities.
Yet he acknowledged that NATO operates under far stricter legal and ethical limitations than Russia. “We have much more limits than our counterpart because of ethics, because of law, because of jurisdiction. It is a harder position,” he said. Valtonen echoed the importance of measured responses, urging the alliance not to overreact and to rely on its established mechanisms. “We shouldn’t be hysterical. We have our own playbook and we should trust it,” she said.
Pressure for a reassessment is growing as Russia tests NATO’s thresholds in increasingly inventive ways. The debate gained fresh urgency following a November 14 explosion on the Warsaw–Lublin railway line, one of Poland’s key routes to the Ukrainian border. No injuries were reported, but Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signaled that Russia may have played a role, vowing that the perpetrators would be found “regardless of who their backers are.”
Days later, on November 19, Romania and Poland scrambled fighter jets as Russian attacks on Ukraine spilled toward NATO territory. Romania reported that a drone entered its airspace, while nearby Moldova also summoned the Russian ambassador over another drone breach. Both countries have repeatedly seen drone debris fall on their territory since 2022.
Drone incidents across the continent have surged since September, when over 20 Russian drones crossed into Poland. While the origins of several UAVs remain unclear, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has characterized the pattern as part of the Kremlin’s “hybrid warfare” strategy.
Behind closed doors, NATO defense planners believe Russia will continue probing for ways to strike at the alliance without triggering Article 5. Dragone’s comments reflect a growing conviction that NATO must adapt, legally, doctrinally, and technologically if it intends to halt Moscow’s hybrid onslaught.
