Egypt Daily News – Ahead of an expected call on Monday with U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to believe he holds strong cards, while European capitals are scrambling to prevent Washington from striking a quick deal that might benefit the Kremlin.
According to a source familiar with Putin’s thinking, the Russian president is confident that his forces can break through Ukrainian defenses by the end of the year and fully regain control of the four regions he previously annexed—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. This makes it unlikely, according to the source, that Putin will offer any major concessions during his upcoming call with Trump.
Meanwhile, European leaders are increasingly concerned that Trump might push for a deal at any cost in an effort to end a war now entering its fourth year, relying on his personal ability to strike a direct agreement with Putin.
However, the latter party, whose forces continue to advance very slowly, has shown no genuine willingness to stop the fighting, raising concerns in Kyiv and European capitals about the possibility of Ukraine being pressured into surrendering more territory.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said at a conference held in Tallinn, Estonia, that “the current conditions give Russia no real incentive to agree to a ceasefire.” In this context, there is growing European sentiment that Washington’s attempts to impose a ceasefire have reached their peak, amid uncertainty over whether Trump will take a tough stance against Russia or abandon the issue for a new challenge if the negotiations fail.
Trump has promised to brief Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO allies on the results of his call with Putin afterward.
Despite the increasing talk of peace, Putin appears ready for a prolonged war if necessary to achieve his goals and is not greatly concerned about potential U.S. sanctions, according to two sources close to the Kremlin.
Russian political adviser Sergei Markov, who is close to the Kremlin, said, “Trump wants Putin to accept a truce, but Putin does not want that at all.” He added, “Putin is not trying to collapse the negotiations, but is maneuvering to keep them going in parallel with military operations.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Trump during a group call on Friday that Putin is stalling, according to a senior European official.
The official added that European leaders hope Trump realizes he may appear weak if he forces a bad deal on Ukraine. Zelensky also took part in the same call and appeared exhausted and pessimistic, the source said. Zelensky and his European allies had believed that Trump had committed to imposing new sanctions on Russia if Putin refused a ceasefire at the beginning of last week, but that has not yet materialized.
Political analyst Bouta Elias of the London-based Prism Institute told Bloomberg, “Putin feels he can raise his demands without any strong response from the Trump administration,” adding that “Putin does not trust Trump but will try to push him to accept the Russian vision for a truce.”
While Zelensky was engaged in intense diplomatic efforts on the sidelines of a Vatican mass marking the inauguration of Pope Leo XIV, Russia launched one of the largest drone attacks on Ukraine since the war began.
At the Vatican, Zelensky shook hands with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance for the first time since their heated disagreement in the Oval Office in February. The meeting appeared cordial and was followed by a broader meeting at the U.S. embassy.
As for Trump, he held a second call on Sunday with Merz, Macron, Starmer, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which focused on the need to reach an unconditional ceasefire and pressure Putin to engage seriously in peace talks, according to a statement by a spokesperson for Starmer.
Despite Putin’s confidence, Bloomberg quoted European officials as saying that Moscow lacks the capabilities needed to achieve Putin’s goals, having suffered heavy losses.
Ben Barry, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, “The likelihood of Russia achieving full control over the four regions by the end of the year is very low,” adding, “Only a collapse of Ukrainian defenses could make that possible, and that scenario is currently unlikely.”
Even within the Russian military establishment, many are skeptical of Moscow’s ability to make a decisive breakthrough, especially given the impact of Ukrainian drones, which have inflicted heavy losses on Russia and hindered large-scale attacks, according to a source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
