Courtney Subramanian, USA TODAY
President Joe Biden took office framing this moment in geopolitics as a battle between autocracy and democracy – casting China as the chief authoritarian threat on the world stage.
More than a year later, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has magnified the question of China's role in the world, and it has worsened tensions between Washington and Beijing.
The chilly U.S.-Chinese relationship may face its biggest test as the United States turns up pressure on China to take a stand against Russia in the largest land conflict in Europe since World War II.
Biden warned Chinese President Xi Jinping of the "consequences if China provides material support to Russia" in its unprovoked attack on Ukraine during a nearly two-hour video call Friday, according to the White House.
The Biden-Xi conversation, their first since November, was "direct," "substantive" and "detailed," a senior administration official said on condition of anonymity to discuss the conversation.
Analysts said Beijing's decision – whether to overtly support Russian President Vladimir Putin's war or to distance itself from the Kremlin's military assault on Ukraine – is shaping up to be an inflection point in the U.S.-Chinese relationship.
"China is at a major strategic crossroads here," said Hal Brands of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. "If China decides to more openly and fulsomely support Russia in this conflict, it's embracing a whole new level of risk, not only in its relations with the West but also in its relations with the United States."
Beijing has tried to walk a geopolitical tightrope, offering tacit support of Russia, a major ally, while trying not to aggravate the West. Supporting Putin could undercut Beijing's credibility on the global stage and expose China to U.S. sanctions, according to Brands.
Xi told Biden "China does not want to see the situation in Ukraine come to this" and called on all sides to "jointly support Russia and Ukraine in having dialogue and negotiation that will produce results and lead to peace," according to a summary of the call from the Chinese Embassy.
Chinese officials described the call as "constructive" and said both leaders agreed to "make respective efforts for the proper settlement of the Ukraine crisis."
As civilian casualties mount in Ukraine, the White House presses Beijing to join the global condemnation of Moscow's invasion and prevent Ukraine from becoming a wider proxy war that could reshape the international order forged over the past century.
Should Xi decide to put more material or military support behind Putin's war, that would "fast-forward the trajectory towards something that looks or rhymes with a Cold War," said Jude Blanchette, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
