Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has issued a stark warning about what it describes as increasingly erratic and scientifically unsound operational practices at Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), saying the irregular water releases have forced Cairo to adjust its own water-management plans and activate emergency infrastructure in southern Egypt.
The ministry confirmed that it has opened the Toshka Spillway and postponed ongoing works to increase its discharge capacity after receiving sudden, unregulated surges of water from the Blue Nile. The step, officials said, aims to protect the stability of Egypt’s hydraulic system and maintain safe operational conditions throughout the national water network.
According to the ministry, the decision was taken following round-the-clock monitoring of inflows from the Ethiopian dam by the Nile Revenue Committee, a panel of specialists in hydrology, dam operation, remote sensing, and mathematical modeling. Based on satellite imagery and real-time data, the ministry concluded that unexpected spikes in upstream discharge made a controlled water-release strategy indispensable to keep Egyptian infrastructure in balance.
Officials emphasized that the country’s water system, bolstered by the High Aswan Dam, remains fully stable and capable of absorbing sudden fluctuations. However, they stressed that the unpredictable nature of Ethiopia’s decisions poses an ongoing risk.
Erratic Ethiopian Releases Raise Technical Questions
Egypt’s concerns center on a pattern of sudden and unexplained changes in release volumes from GERD. On 8 October 2025, Ethiopia abruptly closed its emergency spillway, causing water discharge to drop to roughly 139 million cubic meters per day before stabilizing at about 160 million cubic meters until 20 October. This level corresponds to only about half of the turbines that Ethiopia claims are operational.
The discharge pattern then shifted dramatically again. On 21 October, releases surged to nearly 300 million cubic meters per day after Ethiopia reopened the emergency spillway—equipment intended strictly for exceptional circumstances, not routine daily operation. For ten consecutive days, average releases hovered around 320 million cubic meters per day before the spillway was closed once more on 31 October.
Between 1 and 20 November, average discharge fell again to around 180 million cubic meters per day—approximately 80 percent above historical norms for that period.
Egypt says these abrupt fluctuations reflect the absence of a stable, science-based operating plan for the dam, creating downstream instability and forcing Sudanese and Egyptian water managers to take protective measures.
In its official statement, the ministry warned that such “repeated irregularities highlight the lack of technical and scientific controls governing the Ethiopian dam’s operations, and the dangers posed by unilateral management of a structure of this magnitude on a transboundary river.”
Structural Concerns Surrounding GERD Spark Debate
While Cairo’s official statements focused primarily on operational inconsistencies, separate commentary from specialists reignited a parallel debate over the structural integrity of the dam itself.
Dr. Mohamed Hafez, a professor of dam engineering at universities in Malaysia, drew attention to what he described as newly installed concrete reinforcements on one of the weakest sections of the GERD’s main concrete body. Using recent satellite and photographic imagery, Hafez noted the appearance of large supporting blocks that were not part of the original design.
He questioned why reinforcement would be added at this stage after Ethiopia announced the completion of the fifth filling and ahead of the anticipated sixth, arguing that loads on the structure should have been accurately calculated during the design phase.
Although Hafez acknowledged that shutdown and filling of the original culverts (berboukh), located near the foundations, occurred years earlier, he said such areas remain more vulnerable to vertical and lateral stress concentrations. Additional concrete mass, he added, could indicate efforts to increase resistance to shear forces, bending, or differential settlement.
He concluded that the modification represents “a major change that cannot be overlooked,” though he cautioned that only the site manager and the Italian contractor, Salini, know the real reasons behind it.
Egyptian Officials Urge Public to Rely on Government Data
In a televised interview, Ministry of Irrigation spokesperson Mohamed Ghanem urged Egyptians to depend solely on official government information when assessing the situation. He stressed that the ministry possesses the only complete and accurate dataset derived from satellite monitoring and field measurements, while independent academics do not have access to the full picture.
Ghanem dismissed speculation that Ethiopia has retained 110 billion cubic meters of water, noting that such numbers are misleading without technical context. The core issue, he said, is not Egypt’s water share, which remains non-negotiable, but the “chaotic management” of GERD that disrupts the flow regime of the entire river system and places particular pressure on downstream Sudan.
He reiterated that Egypt, unlike Sudan, has sufficient infrastructure and operational flexibility to manage sudden fluctuations but stressed the need for responsible, coordinated dam management at the basin level.
Growing Urgency for Cooperative Water Governance
The ministry’s latest warnings signal rising urgency in Cairo, which has repeatedly pressed for a binding trilateral agreement with Ethiopia and Sudan on the rules for filling and operating GERD. Despite years of negotiations, no such agreement has been reached, and Ethiopia continues to manage the dam unilaterally.
As both hydrological uncertainties and structural questions surface, Egypt argues that consistent, transparent, and scientifically grounded coordination is essential to protect the interests of all downstream communities.
