Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egyptian water expert Abbas Sharaqi has warned about the operational status of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its potential implications for downstream water flows, as Nile inflows to Egypt continue to fluctuate ahead of the upcoming rainy season.
In comments published on social media, Sharaqi said inflows reaching the Aswan High Dam have increased despite reduced discharge rates from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, noting that lake levels behind the Ethiopian dam remain relatively high following its official inauguration phase in September 2025.
He stated that the reservoir level had reached a maximum of about 640 meters above sea level, with only a modest decline of around 11 meters recorded by April 10, 2026. He attributed the limited drop to reduced turbine operations, estimating that the stored water volume still represents a significant share of the system’s capacity.
Sharaqi warned that as the rainy season approaches in May, inflows are expected to rise sharply, potentially increasing pressure on dam operations. He argued that gradual pre-season water releases would be necessary to avoid forced high-volume spillway discharges during peak rainfall months, which could increase flood risks downstream, particularly in Sudan.
He added that current inflows are among the lowest of the year at around 12 million cubic meters per day, but are expected to rise significantly in May and June as seasonal rains intensify across the upstream basin, including contributions from the Lake Victoria system and tributaries feeding the Nile.
The expert also noted that rainfall across the equatorial plateau has so far been above average, suggesting sustained inflows in the coming months.
The comments come amid ongoing regional tensions over the management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a long-running dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over filling and operation rules. Egypt has consistently described the Nile as an existential issue and has called for a legally binding agreement governing the dam’s operation.
After years of negotiations, Cairo formally announced the suspension of talks in December 2023, while reiterating that it reserves the right to take measures it deems necessary to protect its water security.
