Egypt Daily News – Egyptian Minister of Environment, Dr. Yasmine Fouad, stated on Monday that the recent heavy rainfall and strong storm that struck Alexandria were scientifically classified as a “low-pressure system,” but also represented a clear manifestation of global climate change, specifically what scientists now refer to as “extreme weather events.”
The minister explained that there are two possible scenarios regarding the future of Alexandria due to climate change: one pessimistic, and one optimistic.
According to Dr. Fouad, extreme weather events differ from traditional weather patterns due to features like unusually prolonged heatwaves or severe low-pressure systems accompanied by torrential rains and powerful winds that exceed forecast models. She emphasized that recent scientific studies place Egypt and other African nations among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts globally.
Two Possible Scenarios for Alexandria and the Nile Delta
When asked whether Alexandria and the Nile Delta might “disappear in the coming decades,” the minister responded:
“Studies offer two scenarios: a pessimistic one and an optimistic one. The pessimistic scenario forecasts a complete submersion of the Delta and Alexandria. The optimistic one still warns of significant damage if no serious actions are taken. Both scenarios look toward the year 2100 not today.”
She emphasized that the Egyptian state takes both scenarios seriously and is preparing accordingly through protection strategies and long-term urban planning:
“Many people ask: why are we building 16 new cities outside the Delta? Because 80 to 90% of Egypt’s population lives in the Delta, and the aim is to encourage expansion beyond the Nile Valley.”
Key Axes of Mitigation and Preparedness
Minister Fouad stressed that avoiding the worst-case scenarios depends on two main axes:
- National-level actions, such as completing protection infrastructure and activating an early warning system.
- Urban planning, particularly the establishment of 16 fully integrated new cities in desert areas.
During emergencies, she added, the government is also leveraging technology and rapid response mechanisms.
Sea-Level Rise: A Serious Threat
Dr. Fouad warned that sea-level rise is one of the most dangerous long-term consequences of climate change. As global temperatures rise, glaciers melt and ocean water expands, leading to a gradual but serious increase in sea levels.
She noted that:
“Projections estimate a rise of about 50 centimeters between 2050 and 2100 — a dangerous figure that necessitates urgent preparedness. This level could cause the complete submersion of Alexandria and the Delta.”
She distinguished between two types of climate impacts:
- Immediate effects, like heatwaves, which can rapidly affect critical sectors such as agriculture.
- Cumulative effects, like sea-level rise, which take years to become fully evident but pose long-term existential risks to coastal areas.
Egypt’s Preparations
The minister concluded by highlighting that Egypt has been taking proactive steps for nearly a decade, not just through international climate diplomacy, but also through practical national measures, including work by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to better manage groundwater and protect against saltwater intrusion.
These efforts form part of a broader, long-term strategy to safeguard Egypt’s coasts, population, and vital infrastructure from the growing threats of climate change.
