Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Ethiopia has officially inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), turning a decade-long national project into a reality with a highly choreographed ceremony that drew the country’s top political leadership, military symbolism, and widespread public participation. But while celebrations erupted in Ethiopia, the event also reignited long-standing tensions with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan, who continue to warn that the dam poses an existential threat to their water security.
The formal inauguration took place on Tuesday in the town of Guba, near the Sudanese border in the Benishangul-Gumuz region where the dam is located. The ceremony was attended by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, along with current and former senior officials including members of parliament, regional governors, and former prime ministers.
On the eve of the event, a large-scale celebration unfolded across Ethiopia. Drone shows lit up the sky, traditional food was distributed, and musical and cultural performances filled city squares. State-run media reported tens of thousands gathered in Addis Ababa and Benishangul-Gumuz, waving banners with slogans like “The Nile for All” and “Renaissance for Ethiopia.”
Abiy Ahmed, addressing the nation during the launch, hailed the GERD as a symbol of “national unity and African progress.” He insisted that the dam was never intended to harm Egypt or Sudan, saying, “The challenges and hunger in Sudan, Egypt, and our neighbors are our challenges too. Our goal is mutual growth.”
But the celebrations have been met with stern diplomatic pushback from Cairo and Khartoum. Both countries have reiterated their rejection of Ethiopia’s unilateral filling and operation of the dam, warning that the absence of a binding legal agreement undermines regional stability and violates international law.
A Decade-Long Project With Deep Regional Implications
The GERD, which has been under construction since 2011, is Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam and a flagship of Ethiopia’s ambition to become a regional energy hub. With a total projected capacity of 5,150 megawatts, the dam is expected to generate electricity for millions of Ethiopians and fuel exports to neighboring countries, including Kenya, Djibouti, and Tanzania.
Currently, the dam produces 3,400 megawatts, and Ethiopian authorities estimate that electricity exports could bring in up to $427 million annually. A large portion of that around $290 million is expected from data mining companies, with the rest from regional electricity deals.
The $5 billion project has been largely financed domestically, with 91% of the funds coming from the Ethiopian central bank and the remaining 9% raised through citizen bond sales and public donations. Notably, no foreign aid was used to build the dam, a point of national pride in Ethiopia.
However, the regional consequences of the dam are far from settled.
Egypt’s Escalating Concerns: “We Have Exercised Maximum Restraint”
Shortly before the inauguration, Egypt delivered an official letter to the United Nations Security Council through Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aaty. In it, Cairo denounced Ethiopia’s continued unilateral actions, accusing Addis Ababa of violating international agreements and undermining the rights of downstream nations.
“Egypt has exercised the utmost restraint over the past years,” the letter stated, “not because we lack the capacity to defend our existential interests, but out of a commitment to diplomacy, dialogue, and regional cooperation.”
Abdel Aaty stressed that the latest celebrations and declarations surrounding GERD do not confer legitimacy on what Egypt considers an unlawful project under international water laws. He cited the absence of a trilateral agreement and warned of the potential consequences of unregulated water releases, especially during periods of drought.
A joint statement from Egypt and Sudan echoed these warnings, calling the dam a “persistent threat to stability in the Eastern Nile Basin” and highlighting concerns about water safety, dam integrity, and the risk of uncontrolled releases during extreme climate events.
Years of negotiations often mediated by the African Union, the United States, and other international actors have repeatedly stalled. Despite the involvement of technical experts and draft proposals, no binding agreement has been reached.
Ethiopia’s Position: Sovereignty and Development First
Ethiopia has consistently maintained that the GERD is a sovereign development project that falls well within its rights as an upstream nation. Officials argue that the dam is crucial to tackling chronic electricity shortages and stimulating economic growth in a country of more than 120 million people.
Speaking to parliament earlier this year, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared: “The GERD is not a threat. It is a shared opportunity. The energy and development it brings will uplift not just Ethiopia, but the entire region.”
He also dismissed concerns that the dam would significantly reduce downstream water flow, insisting that Ethiopia is only utilizing a portion of its rightful share of the Blue Nile.
For Ethiopia, GERD is more than just an energy project. It is a symbol of national resilience, pan-African capability, and a break from historical dependency. The Ethiopian government has repeatedly emphasized that the dam’s completion without foreign aid demonstrates the country’s engineering and financial self-reliance.
No Resolution in Sight
Despite the celebratory tone in Ethiopia, the dispute over the GERD remains a flashpoint in regional politics. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its freshwater needs receiving around 55.5 billion cubic meters annually, views the dam as a direct threat to national security. Sudan, with a more complex position, shares Egypt’s concerns over water management and dam safety, particularly during floods or droughts.
The lack of a legally binding agreement leaves the region in a precarious state. While Ethiopia moves forward with electricity production and regional energy deals, Egypt and Sudan continue to push for international intervention to safeguard their water rights.
With tensions running high and negotiations stalled, the GERD stands as both a monumental achievement and a source of ongoing geopolitical friction offering light and power to millions, but casting a long shadow over the future of Nile Basin cooperation.
