Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Iranian media have published what they describe as a comprehensive five-point strategy outlining how Tehran might respond to a potential military confrontation with the United States, emphasizing regional geography, asymmetric warfare, and prolonged pressure rather than direct conventional superiority.
The plan was reported by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency amid renewed diplomatic tensions between Washington and Tehran. According to regional media, talks between the two sides had been close to collapse before both agreed to meet in Oman on Friday, highlighting the fragile state of diplomacy as military scenarios are increasingly discussed in public discourse.
The strategy presented by Tasnim envisions a multi-phase conflict in which Iran would absorb an initial U.S. strike, retaliate through regional allies, escalate in cyberspace, disrupt global energy markets, and ultimately raise the economic and political costs of war to unsustainable levels for Washington and its partners.
The first phase assumes U.S. strikes on Iranian territory. According to the scenario, Washington would launch air and missile attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, military installations, and bases belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, many of which are located near densely populated areas. The plan suggests such attacks would likely be carried out by aircraft launched from U.S. aircraft carriers deployed in the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, as well as strategic bombers operating from the United States, Europe, or allied bases.
The envisioned U.S. campaign would rely heavily on stealth aircraft, precision-guided munitions, and coordinated strikes designed to overwhelm Iranian air defenses and minimize American losses. The plan acknowledges Washington’s technological advantage, including in hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare, but argues that Iran has prepared for this scenario by dispersing key assets, fortifying facilities, establishing redundant command structures, and expanding underground installations capable of surviving initial attacks. The Iranian assessment does not hinge on preventing damage entirely, but on retaining enough capability to retaliate effectively.
The second phase centers on a rapid Iranian response supported by regional allies. Iran would seek to expand the battlefield beyond its borders within hours, launching waves of ballistic missiles and armed drones against U.S. military facilities across the region. Chief among the potential targets is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command and serves as a critical hub for American air operations.
The strategy emphasizes saturation attacks, involving the simultaneous launch of hundreds or even thousands of projectiles to overwhelm U.S. air defense systems such as Patriot and THAAD batteries. At the same time, Tehran expects allied armed groups aligned with what it calls the “Axis of Resistance” to open multiple fronts, stretching U.S. and allied forces across several theaters.
Cyber warfare forms the third pillar of the plan. According to the scenario, Iran would conduct cyberattacks against what it considers vulnerable American targets, including transportation networks, energy infrastructure, financial systems, and military communications. Iranian planners believe cyber operations could disrupt U.S. logistics, complicate command and control, and sow instability in countries hosting American forces. By targeting civilian infrastructure such as electricity grids or water systems, Iran hopes to pressure host governments to reconsider the presence of U.S. troops on their soil.
The fourth element of the strategy focuses on energy markets, which Iranian officials have repeatedly described as one of Tehran’s most powerful tools. Central to this approach is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 21 million barrels of oil pass each day, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supplies. At its narrowest point, the strait is only around 38 kilometers wide, making it one of the world’s most strategically sensitive maritime chokepoints.
The plan outlines tactics including mining shipping lanes, attacking oil tankers with missiles and drones, and potentially sinking vessels to block key channels. It also highlights naval exercises conducted by the Revolutionary Guard that simulate “swarm” tactics, using fast attack boats armed with missiles and torpedoes to harass and overwhelm larger naval vessels.
The final component of the strategy is a long-term bet on the cost of war. Tehran’s calculation, according to the report, is that the United States and its allies would eventually conclude that the economic, military, and political costs of a prolonged, multi-front conflict outweigh any potential gains. By threatening global energy supplies, sustaining attacks across several countries, and potentially inflicting significant U.S. casualties, Iran hopes to create a scenario that becomes politically and strategically untenable for Washington.
While the plan reflects Iranian media analysis rather than official government doctrine, its publication underscores how openly military scenarios are now being discussed amid heightened tensions. As diplomatic efforts continue in parallel, the report highlights the high stakes involved and the potential for escalation should talks fail to produce a lasting de-escalation between the two long-standing adversaries.
