Egypt Daily News – Israeli media reported that there is growing concern within the Israeli security establishment regarding Egypt’s move to modernize its air force with advanced weaponry deals, which could undermine Israel’s air superiority.
This concern escalated following reports of Egypt acquiring the Chinese J-10C fighter jets, nicknamed the “Vigorous Dragon,” equipped with advanced PL-15 air-to-air missiles.
According to the Israeli security-focused website “nziv,” these missiles, with a range of 200-300 kilometers, could significantly enhance Egypt’s air combat capabilities and shift the regional balance of power.
The website noted that Egypt’s interest in the J-10C jets is part of a broader strategy to modernize its air force and diversify its arms sources away from traditional Western partners like the United States and France.
In recent years, Egypt has successfully bolstered its air capabilities through major deals, including French Rafale jets, American F-16 fighters, and Russian MiG-29M2 aircraft.
Now, reports suggest Egypt is interested in acquiring the export version of the PL-15E missile, which has a range of approximately 150 kilometers—shorter than the standard version (200-300 kilometers) used by the Chinese military. Nevertheless, this missile represents a significant improvement over current regional missiles in terms of range and accuracy.
Israeli analysts have focused on the risks of integrating the PL-15 missile into the Egyptian Air Force. This missile, equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, is designed for beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat, giving Egyptian aircraft the ability to target enemy planes from much greater distances than previously possible.
Israel, which has long maintained air superiority in the region thanks to advanced American weaponry like the stealth F-35 jets and modern air defense systems, views the introduction of the PL-15 into Egypt’s arsenal as a challenge to its military dominance. This missile outperforms the American AIM-120 AMRAAM in effective range, posing a potential threat to Israel’s air superiority in future conflicts.
For decades, the United States and France have followed a traditional policy aimed at maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge. As a result, the sale of long-range air-to-air missiles to Egypt, such as the French METEOR and American AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles which have significantly shorter ranges compared to the PL-15 has been restricted.
In the past, Washington exerted significant diplomatic pressure to prevent Russia from selling Su-35 jets to Egypt. The U.S. is unlikely to adopt a similar stance with Egypt’s move with the J-10C deal with China.
The increasing speculation has sparked discussions within Israeli security circles about its long-term implications. Egypt integration of J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles into its air force, could alter the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, particularly in scenarios involving air superiority conflicts.
Israeli analysts believe this move reflects Egypt’s broader strategy to reduce reliance on Western suppliers and increase strategic independence. It also aims to enhance deterrence capabilities amid ongoing shifts in regional security dynamics.
These developments are expected to push Israel to accelerate the modernization of its air fleet, particularly as it continues to rely on the stealth F-35I Adir and F-15EX jets to maintain air dominance. However, Egypt’s increased access to advanced missile technology may also prompt Tel Aviv to develop new air combat tactics and countermeasures.
As military procurement trends evolve, the coming months the deal is expected to spark diplomatic discussions among Egypt, China, Israel, and Western powers regarding the shifting military balance of power in the region.
