Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Tensions between Egypt and Israel have intensified in recent days following Israeli accusations that Cairo has increased its military presence in the Sinai Peninsula beyond agreed limits. The dispute has been compounded by Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen’s threat to withhold approval of a major natural gas deal with Egypt, and by Defense Minister Yisrael Katz’s order to declare the border area with Egypt a closed military zone.
However, Egyptian military analysts and officials have downplayed the significance of Israel’s recent moves, asserting that Egypt’s energy and security interests remain well-protected and that Israel’s rhetoric serves primarily domestic political purposes.
Gas Deal as a Pressure Tool
According to Egyptian sources, Cairo has not received any official notification from Israel regarding a suspension or cancellation of the gas deal. The same sources stressed that Egypt is fully capable of meeting its energy needs through alternative sources.
Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s State Information Service, stated that Cairo has conveyed “clear and decisive messages” to Israel concerning its military presence in Sinai, emphasizing that all Egyptian deployments there are in accordance with the 1979 peace treaty.
Major General Wael Rabie, a regional and Israeli affairs expert, described Israel’s recent statements as part of an “information campaign designed to distract the Israeli public and project external threats.” He suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu often resorts to such tactics in times of internal crisis.
“Israeli media itself reported that the energy minister’s actions were taken at Netanyahu’s instruction,” Rabie said.
Economic Stakes and Strategic Calculations
The gas agreement in question involves the supply of 130 billion cubic meters of gas from Israel’s Leviathan field to Egypt until 2040. The contract includes strict penalty clauses that would make withdrawal costly for Israel potentially amounting to billions of dollars in losses.
According to Rabie, suspending the deal could actually benefit Egypt for several reasons. First, he noted that global oil prices are expected to drop to around $50 per barrel, reducing the attractiveness and market price of natural gas.
Second, Egypt’s prime minister has announced that the country expects to achieve self-sufficiency in natural gas by 2027. Third, Egypt is rapidly expanding its renewable energy sector, particularly through solar and wind power, which will further diminish its reliance on natural gas.
Finally, Rabie pointed to Egypt’s nuclear energy program, with the El-Dabaa nuclear plant expected to begin production in 2027. “Once the nuclear reactor comes online, Egypt will secure full energy independence and will no longer need imported gas,” he explained.
Military Presence in Sinai
Addressing Israeli claims about Egyptian troop movements in Sinai, Rabie stressed that the presence of Egyptian forces in the peninsula is fully consistent with the 1979 peace treaty between the two countries.
“The forces in Sinai are border guards and counterterrorism units whose role is to secure Egypt’s territory and prevent smuggling or terrorist activity,” he said. “All of this is done in coordination with the Israeli side.”
He added that between 2012 and 2013, both countries agreed to allow additional Egyptian forces into the area under the arrangement known as “Agreed Activity.” These deployments were made to combat terrorism, with the presence of UN Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) ensuring compliance with the peace accord.
Broader Implications
Analysts suggest that Israel’s latest actions particularly the declaration of the border as a closed military zone, reflect a desire to exert political pressure rather than a genuine security necessity. Some observers interpret these moves as part of a broader Israeli strategy to curb Egypt’s growing regional influence and independence, especially as Cairo strengthens its energy, military, and diplomatic standing.
Despite rising rhetoric, both nations appear cautious to avoid any direct confrontation. Egyptian officials continue to frame their actions as consistent with international agreements and national security priorities, while Israel faces internal divisions that may be shaping its external posture.
As the region’s energy and security dynamics evolve, the Sinai Peninsula once again emerges as a focal point of strategic tension, testing the durability of one of the Middle East’s longest-standing peace treaties.
