Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
The prospect of a direct U.S. military intervention in Iran has moved sharply closer, with American, European, and Israeli officials warning that action could come within hours as Washington evacuates personnel from key military facilities across the Middle East. The developments come amid an unprecedented wave of unrest inside Iran, a violent state crackdown, and increasingly explicit threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
U.S. officials confirmed this week that personnel had been withdrawn from at least one major American base in the region as a precautionary measure, citing heightened security risks. Qatar acknowledged that drawdowns were under way at Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East and the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command. The base, which hosts around 10,000 American troops, was previously targeted by Iran in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.
Two European officials said preparations for possible U.S. military action were advancing and described intervention as “likely,” with one warning it could occur within the next 24 hours. An Israeli official separately said President Trump appeared to have made a decision in principle to intervene, though the timing and scope of any strike remained unclear. American officials declined to comment on operational details but described the evacuations as precautionary rather than an indication of imminent action.
Tehran, meanwhile, has issued stark warnings to Washington’s regional allies. A senior Iranian official said Iran had informed neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Qatar, that U.S. military bases on their soil would be targeted if the United States launches an attack. The official added that direct contacts between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had been suspended.
The crisis is unfolding as Iran’s leadership struggles to contain what both Iranian and Western officials describe as the most severe domestic unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Protests that began two weeks ago over dire economic conditions have rapidly escalated into nationwide demonstrations against clerical rule. Iranian authorities say the unrest has been fueled by foreign interference, accusing the United States and Israel of backing what they label “armed terrorists.”
The human toll has been staggering. An Iranian official said more than 2,000 people had been killed, while the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported at least 2,403 protesters and 147 government-affiliated individuals dead so far. Other rights groups put the total death toll even higher. HRANA also reported more than 18,000 arrests, far surpassing figures from previous protest movements in 2009 and 2022.
President Trump has issued increasingly blunt warnings to Tehran, publicly urging Iranians to continue protesting and calling on them to seize state institutions. In a televised interview, he vowed “very strong action” if Iranian authorities carry out executions of protesters, declaring that “help is on the way.” On Wednesday night, he warned that if Iran proceeds with planned hangings, “you’re going to see something.”
Those warnings appear not to have deterred Iran’s leadership. The head of Iran’s judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, signaled that fast-track trials and executions would continue, arguing that swift punishment was necessary to prevent further unrest. Human rights groups say at least one protester, 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, faced imminent execution after being sentenced to death for allegedly taking part in demonstrations in the city of Karaj. His family and supporters gathered outside Tehran’s Ghezel Hesar prison, pleading for international intervention.
Inside Iran, the government has sought to project an image of resilience and popular backing. State television broadcast large funeral processions for those killed in the unrest, with crowds waving flags, holding portraits of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and chanting pro-government slogans. President Masoud Pezeshkian told a cabinet meeting that as long as the government retained public support, “all the enemies’ efforts against the country will come to nothing.”
Regionally, diplomatic activity has intensified. Iranian officials confirmed contacts with counterparts in Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey, while Qatar said it was coordinating closely with partners to manage rising tensions. Western diplomats caution that while the unrest has shaken Iran’s leadership at a vulnerable moment, following Israeli and U.S. strikes last year and the reimposition of U.N. sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program, the regime does not yet appear on the brink of collapse.
Adding to the sense of imminent escalation, Israel’s “Wing of Zion” state aircraft made a high-profile flight from Israel over the Mediterranean to Crete before returning, echoing movements seen ahead of previous confrontations with Iran. Israeli officials denied any connection to military action, describing the flight as routine training, though similar denials have preceded past strikes.
With U.S. forces spread across the region, including the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and critical installations in Qatar, the risk of miscalculation is high. Analysts warn that any American strike particularly if it targets sites in Tehran, could trigger a wider regional conflict, drawing in U.S. allies and Iranian proxies alike.
As Iran accelerates executions and Washington signals readiness to act, the Middle East appears to be entering one of its most volatile moments in years, with the fate of protesters inside Iran and the prospect of open conflict hanging in the balance.
