The Associated Press
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin voices have frequently threatened the West with its nuclear arsenal.
On Day 1 of the war, Putin said “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to consequences you have never seen in history.”
FILE – Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Russia, June 14, 2024. Putin said Russia could revise its nuclear doctrine outlining conditions for when atomic weapons are used to take into account the evolving global situation. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
Over nearly 2 1/2 years of fighting, the West has given Ukraine billions of dollars of advanced weapons, some of which have struck Russian soil. And while there have been more Kremlin threats — and even the deployment of battlefield nuclear weapons in Belarus, just over the border from Ukraine — so far it has remained only a blunt message.
Russia Nuclear Doctrine Explainer© Provided by The Associated Press
What could finally trigger a nuclear response?
Asked that in June by international news agencies, Putin pointed to Russia’s so-called nuclear doctrine.
“Look what is written there,” he said at the St. Petersburg session. “If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal.”
Now Russian hawks are urging him to change the doctrine to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and Putin says the document could be modified to take into account the evolving global situation.
FILE – In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, the Russian nuclear submarines Prince Vladimir, above, and Yekaterinburg are harbored at a naval base in Gazhiyevo, on the Kola Peninsula in Russia, on April 13, 2021. Russian hawks have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and President Vladimir Putin said the doctrine could be modified. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated PressWhat is Russia’s nuclear doctrine?
Formally known as the “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence,” it was signed by Putin in 2020 and outlines when Russia could dip into its atomic arsenal, the world’s largest.
It describes nuclear weapons as “a means of deterrence,” noting that their use is an “extreme and compelled measure.” It declares that Russia “takes all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent aggravation of interstate relations that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones.”
FILE – In this handout photo released by the Roscosmos Space Agency Press Service on April 20, 2022, the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is launched from Plesetsk in northwestern Russia. Hawks in Russia have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and President Vladimir Putin said the doctrine could be modified. (Roscosmos Space Agency Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
The document states that “nuclear deterrence is aimed to provide comprehension by a potential adversary of the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.”What does it say will trigger using nuclear weapons?
Russia could use them, the doctrine says, “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”
FILE – In this image from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Tu-95 strategic bomber from the Russian air force prepares to take off from an air base in Engels near the Volga River in Russia, on Jan. 24, 2022. Russia’s nuclear doctrine says the country could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
It says nuclear weapons could be used under the following specific situations:
FILE – In this photo taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Oct. 26, 2022, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is test-fired as part of Russia’s nuclear drills from a launch site in Plesetsk, northwestern Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has monitored drills of the country’s strategic nuclear forces involving multiple practice launches of ballistic and cruise missiles. The Kremlin said in a statement that all the test-fired missiles reached their designated targets. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
— If reliable information is received about the launch of ballistic missiles targeting the territory of Russia or its allies.
— If nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction are used against Russia or its allies.
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— If an enemy attack with conventional weapons threatens Russia’s existence.
— If there are attacks on critically important Russian government or military facilities that could undermine the country’s retaliatory nuclear strike capability.
FILE – In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on April 14, 2023, a Russian nuclear submarine sails to take part in the Pacific Fleet drills near Vladivostok, Russia. The country’s nuclear doctrine says Moscow could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated PressHas any attack so far come close to crossing this threshold?
As Russia attacked parts of northeastern Ukraine near the city of Kharkiv, Washington has allowed Kyiv to use longer-range U.S.-supplied weapons for strikes in Russian territory in the border region. But these attacks have been limited in scope and would not seem to pose an existential threat that would fall under the nuclear doctrine.
FILE – In this photo taken from video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on July 23, 2024, Russian soldiers install a camouflage on Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launcher during a military exercise in Yoshkar-Ola, the Republic of Mari El, Russia. Russia’s nuclear doctrine says the country could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
However, the hawks in Moscow have pointed to a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian air bases that host long-range nuclear capable bombers earlier in the conflict, as well as recent raids on early warning radars.
They say these circumstances would seem to warrant the use of nuclear weapons as laid out in the doctrine.
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Russian officials haven’t commented on the attacks on the more sensitive targets. The early warning radars are designed to spot the launch of U.S. missiles to allow Russia to launch its own nuclear-tipped missiles before they are destroyed.
James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment, said in a recent commentary that Ukrainian attacks on the early warning radars could prompt the Kremlin to think Washington had encouraged such strikes to try to weaken Russia’s nuclear deterrent.
“If Moscow believes that Washington could conduct a successful preemptive attack on its nuclear forces, its trigger finger could get very itchy, raising the risk that Russia might launch a large-scale nuclear attack based on a false or misinterpreted warning,” Acton said.
FILE – In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 2, 2024, Russian troops load an Iskander missile onto a mobile launcher during drills at an undisclosed location in Russia. Hawks in Russia have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and President Vladimir Putin said the doctrine could be modified. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated PressWhat changes in the doctrine are under discussion?
The Kremlin’s nuclear threats have been dialed down recently amid Moscow’s battlefield successes in Ukraine. However, there also have been calls in Russia for changing the nuclear doctrine, and Putin said it could be modified, depending on global events.
FILE – In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on May 21, 2024, Russian air force crewmen at an undisclosed location in Russia prepare a Tu-22M3 bomber for a training mission as part of drills for using tactical nuclear weapons. Russia’s nuclear doctrine says the country could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
Hawks have called repeatedly for sharpening it, arguing the current document is too weak and vague. They say the doctrine hasn’t deterred the West from increasing aid to Ukraine and gives the impression that Moscow won’t ever resort to nuclear weapons.
Foreign affairs expert Dmitri Trenin, of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a state-funded Moscow think tank, suggests revising it to declare that Russia could strike first with nuclear weapons when “the core national interests are at stake,” like in Ukraine.
“The acute task in the third year of military confrontation is to prevent NATO’s deeper engagement in it,” Trenin wrote recently. “If we don’t do it, the inertia of persistent escalation by the West will lead to a direct clash between Russian and NATO militaries, which is fraught with a global nuclear war.”
FILE – In this image released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on May 21, 2024, a Russian Iskander missile is seen at an undisclosed location in Russia during drills for using tactical nuclear weapons. Russian hawks have called for revising the country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said the doctrine could be modified. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)© Provided by The Associated Press
At the international forum in St. Petersburg, Sergei Karaganov, a foreign policy expert who advises the Kremlin, also urged Putin to amend the doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
“I hope it will be changed soon to give you the formal right to respond to any strikes on our territory with a nuclear strike,” he told the Russian leader. “I hope that such a provision will be added to our doctrine to help cool our adversaries.”
Karaganov likened the West to Sodom and Gomorrah, the biblical cities destroyed by God with a rain of fire for their wickedness. “Let’s remember that rain and try to make humankind come to its senses,” he said.
Putin responded cautiously, saying that he currently sees no threats that would warrant nuclear weapons use, but he also held the door open to revising the policy.
“This doctrine is a living instrument, we are carefully watching what’s going on in the world around us, and we don’t exclude making changes in the doctrine,” he said.
The need to modify the document, he said, was driven by concerns about the West pondering the possible deployment of low-yield nuclear weapons. Putin didn’t give specifics, but his comments could refer to U.S. discussions on deploying low-power submarine-launched nuclear missiles.
Proponents say such weapons are needed to counter Russian threats, while critics argue they could lower the threshold for the U.S. using nuclear weapons and increase the risk of war.
“Nuclear devices of extremely low power are being developed, and we are aware of the ideas circulating in expert circles in the West that such strike assets could be used, and there is nothing particularly horrible about it,” Putin said. “We are obliged to take notice of that, and we are taking notice.”
