Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Efforts to end the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran appeared to stall Friday as fresh military confrontations erupted in and around the Strait of Hormuz, while a new American intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that Tehran can withstand the ongoing US naval blockade for at least four more months.
According to a US official familiar with the classified assessment, an analysis by the CIA found that Iran is unlikely to face crippling economic pressure from the maritime blockade in the immediate future, suggesting that Washington’s strategy has yet to force Tehran into a decisive retreat despite mounting military and economic pressure.
The report, first revealed by The Washington Post, underscores growing concern inside Washington that the conflict may drag on far longer than anticipated, even as Donald Trump pushes for a political settlement to a war increasingly unpopular among American voters.
The latest intelligence findings came amid one of the most dangerous weeks of escalation in the Gulf since a fragile ceasefire took effect last month. Fresh fighting was reported Friday in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United Arab Emirates announced it had once again come under attack.
Washington is currently awaiting Tehran’s response to a US proposal that would formally end the war before broader negotiations begin over more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
Speaking in Rome, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that Washington expected an Iranian reply soon.
“We hope this response will be a step toward serious negotiations,” Rubio said.
Iranian officials later confirmed that Tehran was still preparing its formal response, though no official answer had been delivered by late Friday in Washington.
Meanwhile, Iranian semi-official media reported scattered clashes between Iranian forces and US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying fears that the conflict could spiral further despite ongoing diplomatic contacts.
Iran’s Fars News Agency reported confrontations between Iranian armed forces and American ships, while Tasnim News Agency later cited a military source saying the situation had temporarily calmed — though the source warned that additional clashes could erupt if US forces reentered the Gulf and interfered with Iranian shipping.
The US military announced that American forces targeted two additional vessels allegedly linked to Iran that were attempting to enter an Iranian port. According to US officials, an American fighter jet struck the ships and prevented them from docking.
Iran has largely restricted the passage of non-Iranian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war, while the United States imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian shipping last month.
Oil markets reacted nervously to the latest escalation, with Brent crude futures climbing above $101 per barrel, although prices remained down more than six percent for the week as investors weighed conflicting signs of military escalation against hopes for diplomacy.
Despite the renewed violence, Donald Trump insisted the ceasefire technically remained intact.
Trump also claimed that three US Navy destroyers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian fire without sustaining damage.
“Three world-class American destroyers successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz under fire,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “No damage was done to the destroyers, but severe damage was inflicted on the Iranian attackers.”
The tensions extended beyond the strait itself after the United Arab Emirates announced that its air defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran, leaving three people moderately injured.
Iran has repeatedly targeted Gulf states hosting American military bases since the war began, and attacks against the UAE intensified this week following Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom,” a short-lived maritime initiative aimed at escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz before Washington abruptly suspended the plan days later.
Tehran, meanwhile, accused the United States of violating the ceasefire originally announced on April 7, arguing that Washington repeatedly undermines diplomatic efforts through military escalation.
“In every instance where a diplomatic solution emerges, the United States chooses reckless military adventurism,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday.
Iranian media also reported casualties following an alleged US naval strike on an Iranian commercial vessel Thursday night, with one crew member killed, ten injured, and four others reported missing.
After meeting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Rubio questioned why European allies had not more strongly supported Washington’s efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
“Will you normalize relations with a state claiming control over an international waterway?” Rubio asked. “Because that would establish a precedent that could spread to dozens of other places.”
Iran’s military command, known as the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, later accused US forces of violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker, another commercial vessel, and conducting airstrikes near Qeshm Island and adjacent coastal regions.
Iranian commanders claimed their forces retaliated by attacking American warships east of the Strait of Hormuz and south of Chabahar Port, though US Central Command denied any American vessels had been damaged.
Even as Washington pursues diplomacy, the Trump administration simultaneously escalated economic pressure on Tehran Friday by imposing fresh sanctions on 10 individuals and companies including entities based in China and Hong Kong, accused of helping Iran acquire materials used in the production of Shahed drones.
The US Treasury Department said it remained prepared to intensify economic measures against Iran’s military-industrial network and warned that foreign companies supporting illicit Iranian trade could also face secondary sanctions, including financial institutions tied to Chinese oil refineries.
The sanctions announcement came just days before Trump’s scheduled visit to China for talks with President Xi Jinping, adding another layer of geopolitical tension to an already volatile global crisis.
