Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has raised serious concerns over the ongoing floods in Sudan, warning that the deluge could soon affect northern regions of Egypt, particularly the governorates of Monufia and Beheira. In a press conference held Thursday following a weekly cabinet meeting, Madbouly cited October projections indicating water flows far above seasonal averages, which may flood Nile riverbanks and surrounding informal settlements.
Madbouly pointedly blamed Ethiopia’s unilateral water releases from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) for contributing to the flooding crisis. He reiterated Egypt’s longstanding demand for a legally binding agreement to govern the operation of the dam, stressing that unilateral actions by Addis Ababa pose risks not just to Sudan, but to the entire Nile basin.
“We support development across Africa and among Nile Basin countries, but not at the expense of our national security or the livelihoods of others,” Madbouly said.
He also issued a stern warning to those encroaching on riverbank lands, known locally as tarh al-nahr, noting that these areas are now at risk of being deliberately flooded as part of Egypt’s emergency response to elevated water levels.
During the same cabinet meeting, Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sewilam presented Egypt’s action plan for flood management. He confirmed that letters had been sent to governors across the country, ordering the evacuation of illegally occupied riverbank zones and warning of potential inundation.
On the Sudanese side, the situation is rapidly deteriorating. Sudan’s Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources issued alerts to communities living along the Nile, urging immediate action to protect lives and property. Several river monitoring stations have now recorded water levels at or above flood thresholds.
According to the ministry’s Tuesday update on Facebook, Blue Nile inflows have dropped to 699 million cubic meters per day, while outflows from the Roseires Dam have been reduced to 613 million cubic meters. In contrast, the Sennar Dam was discharging 688 million cubic meters, while other key dams like Jebel Aulia, Khashm El Girba, and Merowe were discharging 130 million, 120 million, and over 730 million cubic meters per day, respectively.
The fluctuations in dam discharges and river inflows indicate a volatile hydrological situation in Sudan, which experts say may have cross-border consequences, particularly for Egypt’s Delta regions.
The warnings underscore growing concerns in Cairo that the management or mismanagement of the GERD by Ethiopia could result in regional instability, especially during the rainy season. Egypt has repeatedly argued that Ethiopia’s unilateral filling and operation of the dam without coordination violates international norms and threatens water security across the basin.
With rainfall levels expected to remain high into mid-October, and Sudan’s infrastructure already strained, Egypt’s northern territories may face unprecedented water stress. Egyptian officials have begun taking preemptive measures, including emergency dredging operations and mobilization of civil defense resources.
As water levels continue to rise across the region, the Nile dispute is once again in the spotlight, highlighting the geopolitical sensitivity of transboundary water management in the Horn of Africa and the urgency of international mediation in securing a sustainable, cooperative framework for all Nile Basin states.
