Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egypt has begun precautionary preparations for a possible surge in Nile waters following a sharp rise in water levels in Sudan, which is now on high alert amid what experts are calling an “unprecedented and artificial flood” triggered by heavy outflows from Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Sudan’s Ministry of Irrigation has issued a “Red Alert” along the Nile basin, as the country faces a critical and potentially dangerous flood situation. Water levels in Khartoum recently reached 16.89 meters, inching closer to the record 17.66 meters set in September 2020.
GERD Blamed for Sudden Rise
Experts and government sources in Sudan warn that unregulated discharges from the GERD, particularly during the ongoing rainy season are worsening flood risks downstream.
Dr. Abbas Sharaky, a water resources and geology expert at Cairo University, stated that Ethiopia failed to manage the water flow properly this year. While the GERD reservoir completed its latest filling phase last year, only four of the planned 13 turbines were briefly operational and then stopped. This left Ethiopian authorities with limited options for controlled water release.
Instead of executing gradual water discharges ahead of the rainy season, Sharaky said Ethiopia allowed the dam’s reservoir to fill up to overflow levels. Since July, this has resulted in a massive daily release of nearly 750 million cubic meters of water, much of which has surged downstream into Sudan.
This volume far exceeds the capacity of Sudan’s Roseires Dam, which holds just 7 billion cubic meters and is now near full capacity, forcing it to release excess water to prevent structural risk.
Sharaky described the situation as a “man-made flood”, caused directly by GERD’s mismanagement — contrary to initial promises that the dam would protect Sudan from floods and help regulate seasonal flows. He warned that this unplanned overflow has destroyed large parts of Sudan’s agricultural season and exposed infrastructure vulnerabilities.
Will Egypt Be Affected?
Despite rising concerns in Sudan, Egyptian experts affirm that Cairo remains in a safe position due to the strategic capabilities of the Aswan High Dam.
Dr. Nader Nour El-Din, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, emphasized that Egypt is well-prepared to absorb any unexpected water inflows.
“The High Dam can store up to 162 billion cubic meters, plus an additional 22 billion in the surrounding side lakes, and the Toshka spillway can offload more than 20 billion cubic meters if needed,” he explained.
Nour El-Din added that Egypt proactively draws down the reservoir by around 55 billion cubic meters before the start of the flood season each year, creating ample space to accommodate inflows without danger.
He reassured that even in the extreme scenario of a full discharge from the GERD reservoir, Egypt’s infrastructure is capable of handling the influx with minimal risk.
“What’s happening in Sudan is serious, but Egypt is insulated from its worst effects. There’s no danger of flooding here, not even close.”
Strategic Response and Diplomatic Implications
While Egypt may not face an immediate physical threat, the situation reinforces Cairo’s longstanding concerns over the unilateral management of the GERD by Ethiopia, without coordination or transparent data sharing with downstream nations.
The developments in Sudan are likely to reignite diplomatic pressure on Addis Ababa, particularly as the humanitarian and agricultural toll in Sudan grows.
Cairo continues to call for a legally binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation to prevent future crises, warning that a lack of coordination undermines regional stability and cooperation on Nile water resources.
As water levels rise and tensions escalate, Egypt is watching the situation closely not out of fear of flooding, but as part of a broader concern over the strategic management of the Nile, and the dangers of unilateral actions in a shared river system.
