Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egypt’s unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 6.4% in the previous quarter, according to the latest Labor Force Survey released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).
The figures signal continued resilience in the labor market despite persistent macroeconomic pressures, with the private sector emerging as the primary engine of job creation.
Expanding Workforce and Rising Employment
CAPMAS data show that Egypt’s labor force expanded to 34.829 million people, up from 34.727 million in the third quarter, a 0.3% increase. Employment rose by approximately 179,000 individuals, while the number of unemployed declined by 77,000, resulting in a net addition of 102,000 people to the labor force.
Of the total labor force, 15.193 million are in urban areas, compared to 19.636 million in rural regions. Men account for 26.903 million participants, while women represent 7.926 million.
The total number of employed individuals reached 32.677 million, a 0.6% quarterly increase. Among them:
- 22.118 million are wage earners
- 2.022 million are employers
- 5.935 million are self-employed
- 2.602 million contribute to unpaid family businesses
The data also highlight sectoral distribution trends. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing lead with 6.562 million workers (20.1%), followed by wholesale and retail trade at 5.450 million (16.7%), manufacturing at 4.714 million (14.4%), construction at 3.480 million (10.6%), and transport and storage at 2.681 million (8.2%).
The economic participation rate among individuals aged 15 and above stood at 46.7%, with a marked gender divide: 70.8% for men compared to 21.7% for women. Participation was slightly higher in rural areas (47.5%) than in urban centers (45.7%).
Private Sector Momentum Amid Fiscal Shifts
Hisham Ibrahim, Professor of Finance and Investment at Cairo University, said the figures reflect the economy’s continued ability to generate employment despite structural and external challenges.
“Although Egypt faces economic headwinds, the labor market remains capable of absorbing new entrants, particularly through private sector activity,” Ibrahim said in remarks to CNN Business Arabic. He noted, however, that Egypt’s sizable informal economy requires the data to be interpreted cautiously.
He emphasized that job quantity alone is insufficient, arguing that income levels remain a pressing concern. “A segment of workers still earns below the officially mandated minimum wage, despite decisions by the Supreme Council for Wages requiring compliance across public and private sectors,” Ibrahim said. “Improving living standards depends on the availability of fairly compensated employment.”
The growing number of self-employed workers, he added, suggests a structural transformation in the labor market. Government employment has become less attractive relative to private-sector opportunities, which increasingly link compensation to productivity and performance, a shift seen as supportive of long-term development goals.
Reform Trajectory and Broader Context
Economist Walid Gaballah described the decline in unemployment as consistent with a longer-term downward trajectory that began following Egypt’s economic reform program in recent years, when jobless rates had previously exceeded 10%.
“The significance of this drop lies in its timing,” Gaballah said in separate remarks to CNN Business Arabic. “It coincides with a relative decline in public investment, indicating stronger private-sector leadership in economic activity and employment generation.”
He cautioned, however, that unemployment is measured as a percentage of the total labor force. “A lower rate does not necessarily mean a proportional decline in the absolute number of unemployed, especially if the labor force itself expands,” he explained.
Gaballah also noted that unemployment declines are not always solely the result of new job creation. Some individuals may exit the labor force altogether moving into informal work, starting private ventures, or seeking employment abroad, which can reduce the headline rate without fully reflecting labor market strength.
Persistent Gender Gap
Despite the overall improvement, gender disparities remain pronounced. Unemployment among men stands at 3.8%, compared to 14.3% among women.
Experts attribute the gap to structural and cultural factors common across developing and Arab economies. These include limited access to suitable employment opportunities for women particularly in rural areas, as well as employer preferences shaped by working-hour demands and considerations related to maternity leave and childcare responsibilities.
“The disparity is not new,” Gaballah said, pointing to both economic and social determinants that continue to influence female participation and employment outcomes.
Balancing Optimism with Structural Challenges
While the fourth-quarter figures offer cautious optimism, economists stress that sustaining progress will depend on deepening private-sector dynamism, improving wage compliance, and expanding formal employment opportunities, particularly for women and youth.
The decline to 6.2% underscores measurable progress in Egypt’s labor market. Yet, as analysts agree, the broader challenge lies not only in reducing unemployment rates but in ensuring that growth translates into higher incomes, greater inclusivity, and durable economic resilience.
