Egypt Daily News – The crackdown reached its peak on Wednesday with the arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, widely seen as the most formidable political challenger to Erdoğan since he took power in 2002. With a single move, Erdoğan’s successes over the past 18 months were put at risk, raising concerns that Imamoğlu’s arrest marks a dangerous turning point for Turkey.
Former MP Suat Kınıklıoğlu commented, “He has crossed the Rubicon. There is no turning back from here.”
Investor Concerns
Investors, who had cautiously returned to Turkish markets after Erdoğan abandoned unorthodox monetary policies that had plunged the country into crisis, reacted with shock. The Turkish lira hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar before closing 3.3% lower, while fears grew over Erdoğan’s commitment to the rule of law and the economic reforms led by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek. The BIST 100 stock index closed nearly 9% lower.
Capital Economics stated that İmamoğlu’s arrest raised concerns about “the broader reform agenda,” adding that “political fears, rather than economic ones, may now dominate President Erdoğan’s thinking.”
According to Galip Dalay from Chatham House, the arrest of Imamoğlu could weaken Ankara’s hopes of leveraging its strengthened defense and security ties with Europe to develop broader relations with the continent. He noted, “The mayor of Istanbul holds the second most important elected office in the country after the president. The problem is that what we are witnessing now will damage relations with Europe.”
A German official stated, “It is impossible to ignore Turkey given the size of its defense industry, but we are at the beginning of discussions. It is up to Turkey to make these discussions easier or more difficult, and the past 24 hours suggest it is heading toward difficulty.”
Ankara’s Role in European Defense
Analysts suggest that Ankara’s strategic importance in European defense, especially with Trump’s possible return to the White House, may have encouraged Erdoğan to act against his main rival.
Seda Demiralp, a political science professor at Işık University in Istanbul, remarked that the U.S. has made it easier for Erdoğan to “navigate this crisis” by signaling its ability to “work with strongmen.”
Imamoğlu, who rose to prominence after defeating Erdoğan’s candidate in Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral election, is one of the few politicians who appeals to a broad spectrum of voters, including Kurds, conservatives, and secularists. He also helped the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) inflict Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) with its worst-ever local election defeat last year.
However, the 54-year-old politician has faced multiple criminal investigations in a country where Erdoğan—who has dominated Turkish politics for over two decades—holds vast control over state institutions, including the judiciary. His arrest, based on alleged links to “terrorism” as well as corruption charges, came just days before the CHP was set to nominate him as a presidential candidate for the 2028 elections.
Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç insisted that the judiciary acted independently, dismissing opposition claims that the arrest was a “coup” against İmamoğlu as “extremely dangerous.”
For former MP Kınıklıoğlu, however, these actions are a “clear signal that Erdoğan does not want to take any risks” ahead of the next presidential elections.
