Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Global oil prices surged past $100 per barrel on Sunday as escalating fighting involving the United States, Israel and Iran raised fears of major disruptions to global energy supplies and shipping routes in the Middle East.
U.S. crude futures jumped about 18 percent to around $108 a barrel, briefly touching $110 during evening trading, the highest level since mid-2022 following the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude, the global benchmark, also climbed roughly 16 percent to nearly $108 per barrel.
The sharp increase reflects growing concerns among energy traders that the expanding war could restrict the movement of oil across key maritime routes, particularly the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, making any disruption there a major threat to global markets.
Iran has warned that it could target oil tankers traveling through the strait, escalating fears that the conflict could spread across the wider Gulf region. Several attacks have already been reported on energy infrastructure and refineries in nearby oil-producing areas, increasing volatility in energy markets.
In a social media post, U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the surge in energy prices, saying higher oil costs would be temporary and necessary to eliminate what he described as the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.
“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social.
Despite those assurances, analysts warn that prolonged instability in the region could drive prices significantly higher. According to energy market analysts at the data firm Kpler, oil prices could climb as high as $150 per barrel by the end of March if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
“The market will only calm down if there is a significant de-escalation,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s lead crude research analyst, noting that energy traders remain deeply concerned about the risk of further attacks on shipping or energy facilities.
The price spike has also rippled through financial markets. Dow futures fell more than 800 points, while futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each dropped around 1.6 percent, reflecting fears that rising fuel costs could reignite inflation and slow global economic growth.
In the United States, fuel prices have already begun climbing sharply. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average price of gasoline rose to $3.45 per gallon on Sunday, about 16 percent higher than the previous week.
A sustained rise in oil prices could further strain household budgets in the United States and add political pressure on the administration ahead of the country’s upcoming midterm elections.
The White House has attempted to calm markets by announcing measures designed to maintain the flow of oil shipments through the Gulf. U.S. officials said the government plans to provide insurance coverage for oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz after major maritime insurers warned they would not cover vessels operating in the conflict zone.
Officials also said the United States may arrange naval escorts for commercial vessels traveling through the waterway, although shipping companies remain cautious about sending ships into the region while tensions remain high.
Meanwhile, an Iranian official warned that the conflict has entered what he described as a “new phase” following Israeli strikes on Iranian oil storage facilities. The official indicated that Iran could respond by targeting energy infrastructure across the region in the coming days.
“Iran will not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz until it achieves its desired results,” the official said, signaling that Tehran may attempt to use its geographic position along the critical maritime route as leverage in the conflict.
Rising tensions have also begun to affect oil production in parts of the region. With storage facilities damaged or full, some producers have reportedly been forced to reduce output.
Speaking on the television program State of the Union, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington does not currently plan to directly target Iran’s oil industry or energy infrastructure.
However, Iran’s oil sector already faces extensive international sanctions, leaving China as its primary remaining buyer of crude exports.
Analysts say the coming days will be critical in determining whether the conflict remains limited or evolves into a broader regional confrontation that could severely disrupt global energy markets.
