Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has firmly rejected the possibility of a proxy war erupting between Egypt and Ethiopia on Somali soil, amid escalating tensions over the deployment of foreign troops as part of a newly restructured African Union peacekeeping mission.
Speaking in an interview with the BBC, President Mohamud emphasized that despite the longstanding regional rivalries between Cairo and Addis Ababa, there is no scenario in which their respective military contingents would clash during the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which began operations this year.
“There will be no proxy war between Egypt and Ethiopia in Somalia,” Mohamud said. “Their troops will not be stationed near each other, they will be deployed hundreds of kilometres apart. I see no reason why Egypt would want to disturb Ethiopia or vice versa.”
The president’s comments come as Egyptian troops prepare to arrive in Somalia to participate in the multinational AUSSOM force, which was launched in 2025 to replace the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), a 17-year-long peacekeeping operation that concluded in December 2024.
Regional Rivalries Spill Into Somalia
While AUSSOM was intended to help the Somali government combat the persistent threat of al-Shabaab — the al-Qaeda-linked militant group responsible for years of violence and instability — the inclusion of both Egyptian and Ethiopian troops has raised alarm among regional observers.
Ethiopia, which already maintains a significant peacekeeping presence in Somalia, has objected strongly to Egypt’s involvement. The two nations have been embroiled in a bitter diplomatic dispute over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo fears could drastically reduce its share of Nile River waters, a lifeline for Egypt’s agriculture and population.
The tension has been further exacerbated by Ethiopia’s 2024 memorandum of understanding with the self-declared independent region of Somaliland, which granted Addis Ababa access to coastal land in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty, a move that Somalia’s government has condemned as a violation of its territorial integrity.
Against this backdrop, the deployment of both nations’ forces under the same peacekeeping umbrella has led to fears that Somalia could become a battleground for broader geopolitical rivalries. Yet, President Mohamud has downplayed such concerns, insisting that the new arrangement is structured to avoid confrontation.
Peacekeeping Structure and Troop Contributions
AUSSOM is expected to consist of approximately 11,900 personnel, including military, police, and civilian staff. According to local media reports, the force will be comprised as follows:
- Uganda: 4,500 troops
- Ethiopia: 2,500 troops
- Djibouti: 1,520 troops
- Kenya: 1,410 troops
- Egypt: 1,091 troops
The mission is tasked with stabilizing security in Somalia, supporting the rebuilding of national institutions, and assisting the Somali National Army (SNA) in its ongoing fight against al-Shabaab.
Despite prior tensions, Ethiopia and Somalia ultimately agreed to the continued presence of Ethiopian peacekeepers under AUSSOM. However, the introduction of Egyptian troops is a new development, prompted by a recent bilateral security pact between Cairo and Mogadishu, which included the delivery of weapons and military support.
Trump Claims Credit for Ending “Unendable” War
Adding a curious twist to the regional developments, former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday that he had helped end the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Calling it one of the “seven unendable wars” he resolved in just seven months, Trump’s statement drew skepticism from analysts and regional diplomats alike. While Egypt and Ethiopia have indeed engaged in high-stakes negotiations and diplomatic posturing, they are not been formally at war.
Trump has made similar claims in the past, often referencing his controversial suggestion in 2020 that Egypt might “blow up” the Ethiopian dam if its concerns were not addressed, a remark that caused diplomatic uproar at the time.
No Room for Escalation, Says Somalia
For now, Somali officials are working to ensure that the peacekeeping mission remains focused on internal stability rather than regional politics. President Mohamud reiterated that the deployment of Egyptian forces was part of a broader security strategy and not a provocation aimed at Ethiopia or any other neighboring country.
“The mission is about Somalia,” he said. “We are not allowing our territory to be used as a platform for anyone else’s conflict.”
Nonetheless, the presence of rival forces on Somali soil remains a delicate issue, with the potential to complicate an already fragile security landscape.
As Somalia continues its long journey toward recovery from decades of conflict and terrorism, its leaders now find themselves navigating not just internal threats, but also the crosswinds of regional rivalries with global implications.
