Egypt Daily News – Former President Donald Trump appears to be gaining momentum in the presidential race, according to polling expert Nate Silver’s latest model projections.
Silver’s model, which analyzes polling data and electoral trends, now indicates that Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College with a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 49.5 percent.
This marks Trump’s first lead in the model since September 19, even as Harris maintains a significant advantage in the popular vote probability at 75 percent.
The model suggests that Trump is winning enough key battleground states, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, to secure a majority of electoral votes, despite Harris potentially winning the popular vote or a narrow electoral majority in other simulations.
There’s also a slim chance (0.3 percent) that neither candidate could achieve a majority in the Electoral College.
Recent data show Trump gaining ground in swing states: he has increased his standing by 1.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, 0.9 points in Michigan, and 0.4 points in Pennsylvania within the last week.
These modest yet significant shifts could signal a positive trend for Trump as he aims to close the gap with Harris.
States like Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina are also highly competitive; Trump currently leads in Georgia and Arizona, while North Carolina remains a toss-up. Silver, having transitioned from FiveThirtyEight to his own platform, characterized the race as highly competitive, describing it as a “toss-up” in August. Historically, Silver’s popular vote forecasts have shown Harris ahead by 1-2.5 percentage points throughout the campaign.
Overall, the projections reflect a tightly contested race with potential for fluctuations as both candidates vie for critical swing states in the lead-up to the election.
