Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egypt is heading into the new fiscal year under mounting pressure from a global energy market shaken by the Iran war, with the government now preparing for a dramatic surge in fuel import costs that threatens to widen economic strains across the country.
Behind closed doors, officials are recalculating energy needs as turbulence in the Gulf drives oil prices upward and raises fears of prolonged instability around the Strait of Hormuz, the vital artery through which much of the world’s oil supply flows.
Government estimates now place Egypt’s fuel import bill for the 2026–2027 fiscal year at nearly $5.5 billion, a sharp leap from the roughly $4 billion allocated during the current fiscal year, according to a government source familiar with the figures.
The increase reflects Cairo’s growing concern that the regional conflict involving Iran may evolve into a prolonged energy crisis capable of reshaping fuel costs worldwide and placing additional pressure on import-dependent economies.
Egypt, which consumes massive quantities of petroleum products each year to sustain electricity generation, transportation, and heavy industry, continues to face a persistent gap between domestic production and actual consumption.
To cover that shortfall, authorities are planning large-scale imports of diesel, butane gas, and gasoline throughout the coming year. Diesel alone is expected to account for the largest share of purchases as the state moves to secure supplies needed to operate power stations and transport networks amid fears of future market disruptions.
The new projections come only months after the government raised local fuel and gas prices in one of the steepest pricing waves in recent years. Officials justified the increases at the time by pointing to exceptional global energy conditions and the financial burden imposed by volatile oil markets.
The Iran conflict has since intensified those concerns.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Gulf have already sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with investors increasingly worried that any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt shipping traffic and trigger further spikes in crude prices.
For Egypt, where energy imports remain a major pressure point on public finances, the consequences are immediate.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi previously acknowledged the enormous scale of Egypt’s petroleum spending, revealing earlier this year that the country spends nearly $20 billion annually on petroleum products.
Much of that consumption, according to El-Sisi, is tied not only to transportation but also to powering Egypt’s electricity sector, which requires enormous volumes of fuel to sustain daily demand across the country.
The latest fuel calculations reveal how deeply international conflicts can affect Egypt’s domestic economy, particularly as the government continues balancing subsidy reforms, inflation pressures, and rising operational costs.
Economic analysts warn that if tensions involving Iran continue or maritime restrictions in the Gulf intensify, Egypt may face even higher import costs in the months ahead, potentially forcing further adjustments to domestic energy prices.
For Cairo, the challenge is no longer simply securing fuel supplies, it is navigating an increasingly unstable global energy landscape where regional wars now carry direct consequences for the Egyptian economy and the daily cost of living.
