Egypt Daily News – Updated data has shown that Egypt recorded its lowest population growth rate in history during the first quarter of 2025, indicating a continued slowdown in population growth across the country, especially in major urban governorates.
According to demographic expert Mr. Akram Alfi, Egypt’s population increased by only 293,000 people during the first three months of the current year, reaching 107.493 million on April 1, compared to 107.200 million on January 1. The average daily increase was 3,300 people. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.12%, a continued decrease from the previous years’ growth rates, where it was 1.4% in 2024, 1.6% in 2023, and 2.4% in 2014. This shows a 54% decline in the population growth rate over the past 11 years, the highest recorded decrease since the start of official statistics in the country.
Urban Centers Approaching “Population Stagnation”
The data indicates notable demographic shifts in major urban governorates, with four main governorates – Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, and Port Said – recording the lowest population growth rates in decades. Port Said recorded an annual growth rate of only 0.1%, becoming the first Egyptian governorate to reach complete population stagnation by April 2025, according to official population classifications.
Cairo recorded a growth rate of 0.59%, with an increase of 15,000 people during the first quarter, averaging 168 people daily. Alexandria had a similar rate of 0.58%, while Suez’s growth rate was 0.5%.
Notable Decline in Lower Egypt and Giza
Outside of the urban governorates, population growth rates decreased in several main governorates in Lower Egypt, as well as in Giza, to below 1%.
The governorates of Menoufia, Gharbia, Kafr El Sheikh, Qalyubia, Dakahlia, Damietta, and Giza recorded annual growth rates ranging from 0.7% to 0.9%. Sharqia recorded a growth rate of 1%, while Beheira and Ismailia exceeded this slightly, at 1.1%.
Upper Egypt Leads Relative Growth, but Below 2%
Despite relatively higher population growth rates in Upper Egypt’s governorates, they have not exceeded the 2% threshold as in previous years, further reinforcing the overall slowdown trend.
The governorates of Upper Egypt recorded an average population growth rate of 1.3% during the first quarter. Sohag saw the highest growth at 1.7%, followed by Qena and Minya, with growth rates over 1.4%, while Aswan had the lowest at 1.2%. This compares to an average growth rate of 2.1% in Upper Egypt in 2023.
Is the Population Slowdown Sustainable or Temporary?
While the current slowdown in population growth reflects a clear trend over recent years, questions arise about whether this decline is due to a stable cultural shift or a temporary effect of the economic crisis the country has been facing since 2022.
Several analysts believe that high inflation rates, reduced purchasing power, and rising living costs have led many families to delay or reduce their decisions to have children, significantly contributing to the noticeable decline in population growth over the past two years.
On the other hand, others point to a relative improvement in public awareness of the issue of population growth, particularly due to official media campaigns and family planning programs, which have expanded in recent years. This could suggest that part of the decline reflects a cultural shift, not just an economic condition.
Potential Economic and Developmental Implications
If this population slowdown continues in the coming years, it is expected to have dual effects on Egypt’s economy.
On one hand, the decrease in population growth could ease pressure on public services such as health, education, and housing, allowing for more efficient resource distribution, particularly in urban areas that have already reached a state of population stability.
On the other hand, the slowdown could raise concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market and consumption in the long term, especially if it coincides with the migration of young workers or continued economic challenges that reduce the contribution of youth to the local economy.
Experts believe that achieving a healthy demographic balance requires continued support for family planning policies, alongside the creation of economic and social opportunities that encourage families to adopt a stable lifestyle, without turning population decline into an economic problem in itself.
