Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
The United States is preparing to complete the withdrawal of its remaining forces from Iraq, bringing an end to a military presence that began with the 2003 invasion and continued through successive wars, insurgencies and counterterrorism campaigns.
The final troops are expected to leave their last bases by September 30 under a timetable agreed by Washington and Baghdad in 2024. The departure is being implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration, even as the United States remains engaged in a wider confrontation with Iran.
For Iran and its allied armed groups in Iraq, the withdrawal represents a major political and strategic victory. The departure removes an American military presence that served as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence and constrained the freedom of action of Iran-aligned militias.
Iraqi security officials and analysts, however, warn that the end of the US-led coalition mission could create new risks. They say Baghdad may struggle to manage the country’s complex security environment without American intelligence, logistical support, surveillance capabilities and military assistance. The withdrawal could also give Islamic State, despite its weakened condition, opportunities to exploit gaps in security operations.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein. American forces remained in the country for nearly nine years, supporting the establishment of a new political system and fighting a violent insurgency. Washington withdrew its troops at the end of 2011, but returned less than three years later after Islamic State captured large areas of Iraq and Syria.
The US-led coalition helped Iraqi forces defeat Islamic State’s territorial caliphate between 2014 and 2017. Although the group lost control of major cities and most of its territory, it did not disappear. Its remaining fighters shifted toward insurgent tactics, relying on sleeper cells, ambushes, bombings and attacks on isolated security positions.
The coalition’s role later evolved from direct combat operations to advising, training and supporting Iraqi forces. American assistance included intelligence collection, air support, surveillance, logistics and institutional training. Analysts say those capabilities remain important even though Iraqi forces have become stronger and Islamic State is no longer capable of holding large cities.
The 2024 agreement established a two-stage transition. The US-led coalition’s military mission in federal Iraq was scheduled to end first, followed by the withdrawal of remaining coalition forces operating from Iraqi bases in support of counterterrorism efforts and operations against Islamic State in northeastern Syria. The arrangement was intended to shift the relationship toward a more limited bilateral security partnership.
Iran-backed factions have celebrated the withdrawal as proof that armed resistance forced the United States to leave. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, called the departure a historic victory and a defeat for what he described as the American project.
Iranian officials have also welcomed the end of the US military presence. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, said lasting security would prevail once American forces left Iraq and the wider region. Tehran has long sought to remove US troops from the Middle East and regards Iraq as a central arena in its regional rivalry with Washington.
The withdrawal could strengthen the political influence of armed groups linked to Iran, particularly if Baghdad is unable to impose full state control over the security sector. Several powerful factions operate within or alongside Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, which were formally incorporated into the state security structure but retain independent chains of command and close relationships with Tehran.
The future of those groups is one of the most important questions facing Iraq. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government has faced pressure to bring militias under state authority, disarm factions that refuse integration and prevent armed groups from using Iraqi territory to attack foreign interests. Analysts say the absence of US troops may make that task more difficult.
Some Iraqi leaders and communities view the American withdrawal differently. For many Iraqis, the end of the foreign military presence is a long-standing national objective and a symbol of restored sovereignty. But others fear that the timing could leave the country vulnerable.
Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, said Iraqis wanted full sovereignty but warned that the coalition’s departure could create a vacuum if national security forces were not ready to assume every responsibility. Kurdish officials have voiced similar concerns, particularly about the loss of American intelligence and surveillance support.
Sirwan Barzani, a Kurdish commander, said suspected Islamic State sleeper cells had shown increased movement after the withdrawal timetable became public. Iraqi security officials have also reported disrupting an alleged plot to carry out suicide attacks during the transition.
The scale of the threat remains disputed. Some assessments describe Islamic State in Iraq as severely degraded and focused primarily on survival. The group no longer possesses the manpower, territory or military capacity it held at its peak. Nevertheless, experts caution that a weakened insurgency can still exploit political instability, sectarian grievances, poor coordination between security forces and ungoverned rural areas.
The experience after the 2011 US withdrawal continues to shape those concerns. Political tensions, sectarian exclusion and institutional weaknesses helped create conditions in which extremist groups expanded rapidly, eventually enabling Islamic State to seize Mosul and large parts of northern and western Iraq in 2014. Analysts say the current situation is different, but the earlier collapse remains a warning about the consequences of security and political fragmentation.
The American departure also closes one of the most dangerous chapters in the relationship between Washington, Tehran and Baghdad. Iraq has maintained close political, economic and security connections with both the United States and Iran, but that balancing act repeatedly turned Iraqi territory into a battlefield.
In 2020, a US drone strike near Baghdad International Airport killed Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a senior Iraqi militia leader. Iran-aligned factions subsequently launched repeated rocket and drone attacks against American facilities, while the United States carried out retaliatory strikes.
More than 4,500 Americans died during the various phases of the US war and military involvement in Iraq. The final withdrawal therefore carries both practical and symbolic significance. For Washington, it ends the coalition’s principal military mission while leaving open the possibility of a smaller bilateral security relationship. For Iran and its allies, it removes a major obstacle to their influence. For Iraq, it begins a new test of whether national institutions can maintain security without relying on a permanent foreign military presence.
