Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by 4.6% in the current fiscal year ending June 2026, according to a Reuters poll, outpacing the government’s own forecast and signaling a potential recovery driven by falling inflation, lower interest rates, and increased exports fueled by a weaker currency.
The forecast, based on the median estimates of 16 economists surveyed between October 6 and 20, surpasses the 4.5% target previously announced by Egypt’s Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, Rania Al-Mashat.
Al-Mashat had earlier reported that Egypt’s economy grew by 4.4% in the last fiscal year (ending June 2025), marking the highest growth rate in two years, up from 2.4% the previous year. The government expects this year’s growth to be supported by continued economic reform measures.
Medium-Term Outlook Positive
According to the Reuters poll, growth is expected to accelerate further in the coming years, rising to 4.9% in fiscal year 2026/2027 and reaching 5.3% in 2027/2028 reflecting optimism over Egypt’s medium-term economic trajectory.
The economy slowed significantly to 2.4% in 2023/2024, but rebounded after March 2024, following a sharp currency devaluation and interest rate hikes implemented as part of an $8 billion support package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The pound’s depreciation has had mixed effects, burdening consumers but boosting tourism and remittances from Egyptians abroad. A $35 billion real estate investment deal with Abu Dhabi in the North Coast’s Ras El Hekma area in February 2024 also helped stabilize investor sentiment.
According to the Central Bank of Egypt, GDP growth accelerated to 5% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 4.8% in the first quarter.
Research firm Capital Economics noted in a recent report that falling inflation and monetary easing have contributed to the recovery. “Egypt’s economy is witnessing accelerating growth, driven by improved external competitiveness, stronger exports, and an expanding local manufacturing sector,” the firm wrote.
IMF Raises Growth Outlook
In its latest World Economic Outlook, released this month, the IMF raised its growth forecast for Egypt for the current fiscal year to 4.5%, up from an earlier estimate of 4.1%.
Egyptian Pound Expected to Weaken Further
Despite recent signs of stabilization, analysts expect the Egyptian pound to continue its downward trajectory in the years ahead.
The Reuters poll projects the pound will weaken to 49.85 to the U.S. dollar by the end of June 2026, from its current level of approximately 47.50. It is expected to reach 52 per dollar by June 2027 and 54 by June 2028.
The currency had recently strengthened to its highest level in over a year, buoyed by declining global demand for the dollar and renewed interest from foreign investors in local treasury bonds, as well as robust tourism revenues.
