Ahmed Kamel – Egypt Daily News
Egypt expects its economy to grow between 4.8 percent and 5 percent in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, according to Planning and Economic Development Minister Ahmed Rostom.
Speaking during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Rostom said fourth-quarter performance will depend largely on evolving global conditions, particularly the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Growth Outlook Holds Amid Global Pressures
Rostom noted that Egypt achieved growth of 5.3 percent in the first half of the fiscal year and is targeting a full-year rate between 4.9 percent and 5 percent, despite continued global uncertainty.
He added that these projections remain broadly aligned with the government’s earlier forecast of 5.2 percent growth for the fiscal year ending in June 2026.
Regional Impact of Commodity Price Shock
Rising global commodity prices driven by geopolitical disruptions, including tensions affecting key energy routes, are expected to slightly weigh on growth across commodity-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa during 2026 and 2027.
However, Egyptian officials believe the impact on domestic growth will remain limited.
IMF Forecast Diverges from Government Estimates
The government’s projections come shortly after the International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecast for Egypt to 4.2 percent for the current fiscal year, highlighting a more cautious global outlook.
Fiscal Deficit Target Narrowed
Despite external pressures, Egypt has reduced its budget deficit target to 6.1 percent of GDP, down from a previous estimate of 7.3 percent, reflecting efforts to maintain fiscal discipline.
Private Sector and Industrial Focus
Rostom said the government aims to increase private sector participation in total investments to 64 percent over the next three years.
He added that current economic policies are focused on rationalizing energy use and prioritizing supply to the industrial sector to sustain production and employment levels.
Egypt’s ability to maintain growth near the 5 percent mark despite global volatility signals relative economic resilience. However, the outlook remains closely tied to external factors, including commodity prices and geopolitical developments, which could influence performance in the months ahead.
